Troy
Trojans
2-0
Spread
+27.5
NCAAF Predictions
Troy Trojans vs Missouri Tigers Predictions
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 7:00pm EST at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
@
Missouri
Tigers
2-0
Spread
-27.5
50%
50%
Spread
Troy Trojans +27.5
Missouri Tigers -27.5
Moneyline
Troy Trojans +1700
Missouri Tigers -4500
Total
Over 49.5 (-112)
Under 49.5 (-108)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
7 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Casper Kohke
Spread pick
Scott Steele
Spread pick
Percy Walker
Total pick
Benjamin Sturn
Spread pick
Eli Rothstein
Spread pick
Bryan Pratt
Spread pick
Bryan Pratt
Total pick
Troy at Missouri Prediction: A 28-Point Win Is a Bigger Ask
Analysis updated September 19, 2026 at 6:56 AM CDT
The Tigers are the likely winner, but their latest result doesn't establish a reason to lay 27.5 points against Troy.
What the results tell us
Missouri won 38-21 at Kansas on September 11. Covering SPF's -27.5 spread against Troy would require a win by at least 28 points, substantially more than that 17-point margin. The Kansas result alone doesn't justify projecting that jump against a different opponent.
Local newspaper reporting from Columbia Daily Tribune via Yahoo Sports puts both teams at 2-0, with Troy beating Sam Houston and Alabama State. Those wins establish Troy's unbeaten start, but offer little basis for judging whether it can stay within this spread.
Betting verdict
SPF lists Missouri at -4500 on the moneyline and Troy at +1700. Missouri is the likely winner, consistent with that price, but a $45 stake would return just $1 in profit. Without a firmer estimate of its win probability, there's no clear reason to take that return.
The total is 50.5, with over -112 and under -108. Unconfirmed starters and the lack of detailed offensive or defensive production leave no sound basis for a scoring projection. Pass on the total and spread.
Pick
Missouri Tigers
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass