Merrimack
Warriors
1-2
Spread
+32.5
NCAAF Predictions
Merrimack Warriors vs Tarleton State Texans Predictions
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 7:00pm EST at Tarleton Memorial Stadium, Stephenville, TX
@
Tarleton State
Texans
3-0
Spread
-32.5
50%
50%
Spread
Merrimack Warriors +32.5
Tarleton State Texans -32.5
Moneyline
Merrimack Warriors
Tarleton State Texans
Total
Over 58.5 (-110)
Under 58.5 (-113)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
0 available
Professional Picks On This Game
No professional picks are available for this matchup.
Tarleton State vs. Merrimack: Can the Texans justify -32.5?
Analysis updated September 19, 2026 at 12:19 AM CDT
Tylan Hines gives the Texans a strong rushing threat, but Merrimack's ability to hold the ball could limit their scoring opportunities.
The matchup against the spread
Tarleton State averages 493.0 yards per game, seventh nationally, according to Tarleton State University Athletics, the school's official athletics site. Yet SPF's -32.5 requires the Texans to win by at least 33 points to cover, more than their current scoring average of 32.0.
Hines leads the FCS with 191.7 rushing yards per game, while Marquis Willis averages 109.0 receiving yards. Those threats make Tarleton State the pick to win. Merrimack averages 33:54 in possession, though, which could reduce the Texans' chances to build that margin if the Warriors sustain drives.
Betting decision
The school's preview reports that Merrimack beat Maine 23-14 last week, ending an eight-game road losing streak. But the Warriors haven't had a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher or 100-yard receiver this season. Their possession numbers alone don't justify a +32.5 wager if they struggle to score.
Pass on the spread. SPF's total is 58.5, but the available scoring and pace evidence doesn't support an over or under bet. The moneyline price is unavailable, so that's a pass as well.
Pick
Tarleton State Texans
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass