Buffalo Bulls vs Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

Buffalo loses a rushing option

Buffalo will be without injured running back Terrance Shelton Jr., according to local news outlet StateCollege.com. That leaves the Bulls with one fewer rushing option against a Penn State team that allowed nine points across its first two games. SPF lists Penn State at -40.5 for Saturday's noon EDT kickoff at Beaver Stadium.

StateCollege.com reports that Buffalo's Messiah Burch averages 5.0 yards per carry this season. That's a useful early return, but it doesn't establish how well Buffalo can run against Penn State without Shelton.

Onward State, a Penn State student-run publication, reports that Buffalo returned 30% of its prior-season production and that only five 2025 starters retained starter status in 2026. That turnover gives little reason to rely on last season's team when judging this matchup.

Prediction and betting decision

StateCollege.com lists Penn State's wins as 45-0 over Marshall and 27-9 over Temple, while Buffalo beat UAlbany 21-17 before losing 33-20 at FIU. Those results favor Penn State to win, but its two winning margins fall on opposite sides of the 41 points needed to cover. They don't justify backing either side at this spread.

SPF's total is 49.5, with over -115 and under -105. The early results and Buffalo's backfield news don't establish a reliable scoring projection for this matchup. Pass on both the spread and total.