Philadelphia
Phillies
Moneyline
+104
MLB Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Predictions
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 4:10pm EST at Citi Field, Queens, New York
@
New York
Mets
Moneyline
-126
50%
50%
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
New York Mets -1.5
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies +104
New York Mets -126
Total
Over 8 (-109)
Under 8 (-111)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
1 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Matt O'Brien
Total pick
Phillies vs. Mets: Scott's ERA Edge Favors New York
Analysis updated September 18, 2026 at 11:45 PM CDT
The scheduled starters point toward New York at Citi Field. Whether that advantage warrants SPF's -126 price is less clear.
Scott gives New York the stronger starting point
Christian Scott's 3.76 ERA compares favorably with Andrew Painter's 5.54 entering Saturday's Phillies-Mets matchup. The Philadelphia Inquirer, a Philadelphia newspaper, lists the two right-handers as the scheduled starters for the 4:10 p.m. ET game at Citi Field. That ERA gap supports favoring New York, which SPF prices at -126 against Philadelphia's +104.
Philadelphia also has bullpen concerns. The Inquirer reports that Jonathan Bowlan remains active with a mild right groin strain and is being evaluated daily. Orion Kerkering, who has been dealing with turf toe, allowed Juan Soto's three-run homer in Friday's 6-3 loss and had an 8.84 ERA since July 22. Those concerns could matter if Painter exits early.
The pick and the wager
New York is the low-confidence winner pick, but the moneyline is a pass. At -126, the Mets need to win about 55.8% of the time to break even. The ERA comparison alone doesn't establish that probability, particularly without confirmed lineups or a fuller comparison of the offenses.
SPF sets the total at 8, with over -118 and under -102. Pass there too: the pitching concerns suggest a route to runs, but unconfirmed lineups and unavailable weather and bullpen-workload details leave the scoring projection too uncertain.
Pick
New York Mets
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass