Buffalo
Bulls
Spread
+39.5
NCAAF Predictions
Buffalo Bulls vs Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:00pm EST at Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
@
Penn State
Nittany Lions
2-0
Spread
-39.5
50%
50%
Spread
Buffalo Bulls +39.5
Penn State Nittany Lions -39.5
Moneyline
Buffalo Bulls
Penn State Nittany Lions
Total
Over 48.5 (-105)
Under 48.5 (-115)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
3 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Buffalo at Penn State prediction: Nittany Lions are the likely winner, but 40.5 is a steep price
Analysis updated September 19, 2026 at 6:00 AM CDT
Penn State is the likelier winner, but the market’s 40.5-point spread is hard to trust. The National Weather Service calls for partly sunny weather, a high near 72, and light wind in State College, so the handicap comes down to whether the Nittany Lions keep scoring after they build a lead.
Matchup snapshot
Penn State is a 40.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total. That price says the Nittany Lions are expected to control the game from start to finish, but it also leaves Buffalo a wide cushion if Penn State eases up late.
The National Weather Service forecast for State College calls for partly sunny conditions, a high near 72, and light, variable wind. That kind of weather should not push the game toward a lower-scoring script or create a hidden edge for the underdog.
Why Penn State is still the right side to win
CBS Sports' game preview notes that Penn State entered 2-0 after wins over Marshall and Temple, while Buffalo came in 1-1 after beating Albany and losing to FIU. That gap in early results matches the market's heavy line.
Penn State should have the better depth and the more stable game plan at home. The issue is not who wins, but whether a huge spread still looks playable once the Nittany Lions get ahead.
Why the spread is the tougher call
To cover 40.5, Penn State has to keep piling on points even if the game gets out of hand early. That is always risky in a nonconference home game, where the favorite can lean on the clock once the outcome is settled.
There is no confirmed starter or injury update in the research, so there is nothing concrete to justify either side of the number. Without that edge, Buffalo plus the points is more of a default underdog look than a strong bet.
Betting view
Penn State is the likelier winner, but the safest betting lean is to pass on the side. The number is big enough that a straight win and a cover are very different questions.
The total is only 49.5, which fits a game where Buffalo may have trouble scoring at all. Even so, the total does not make the favorite an automatic play at -40.5.
Pick
Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected score
Penn State 38, Buffalo 6
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass