Long Beach State Beach vs Montana State Bobcats Predictions

Montana State brings more continuity home

Montana State University Athletics reports that the Bobcats return 65.7% of last season's scoring, 59.8% of their rebounding and 65.0% of their assists. Long Beach State returned only 3% of its scoring. That experience, combined with Montana State's 11-2 home record last season, makes the Bobcats the more likely winner at Worthington Arena.

Both teams lost on the road in their openers. Montana State fell 84-74 at Colorado State, where Jeremiah Davis scored 17 points and made four steals. Long Beach State lost 66-63 at Utah behind McCaden Adams' 21 points. The Beach's three-point loss to a road opponent is the clearest reason to avoid assuming Montana State will win comfortably.

The prices require more evidence

SPF lists Montana State at -600 on the moneyline and -10.5 against the spread, with Long Beach State at +440 and +10.5. The Bobcats have also won seven consecutive home openers, but a -600 price leaves little room for an early-season team that lost its first game by 10 points.

The 10.5-point spread is also too large to back with confidence. Long Beach State received 46 combined points from Adams, Yohann Sissoko and JJ Gray at Utah, while no confirmed starters or injury report are available for Saturday's game. Those gaps don't establish value on the underdog, but they make laying double digits difficult to justify.

The total is 146.5 with -110 odds on either side. One game from each team doesn't provide enough information about pace or defense to support an over or under wager. The best betting decision is to pass.