South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Predictions

Louisiana's defense faces South Alabama's rushing strength

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Athletics reports that Louisiana ranks second in the Sun Belt in total defense, allowing 317.3 yards and 21.3 points per game. That defense supports Louisiana as the likely winner, but South Alabama's rushing production makes the SPF price of -298 difficult to justify.

South Alabama's Keenan Phillips, PJ Martin and Trae'von Dunbar have combined for 1,423 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. The Jaguars have also scored on 28 of 31 red-zone possessions, so Louisiana must prevent steady rushing gains from turning into touchdowns.

Takeaways give both teams a path

Louisiana has forced 15 turnovers, while South Alabama has produced 11. Louisiana quarterback Lunch Winfield has added 470 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns to his 1,452 passing yards, giving the favorite another way to sustain drives.

Louisiana is 5-3 overall and South Alabama is 4-4, with both teams at 2-2 in Sun Belt play. Louisiana leads the series 10-4, but the visiting team has won the past five meetings, a result that cautions against treating home field as a decisive edge.

Prediction and betting lean

SPF lists Louisiana at -298 and -7, South Alabama at +240 and +7, and the total at 57.5. Louisiana is the likely winner, but no confirmed starters, injuries or weather information is available to support laying seven points, paying -298 or betting the total. The wager is Pass.