The Citadel
Bulldogs
2-6
Spread
+18.5
NCAAF Predictions
The Citadel Bulldogs vs Mercer Bears Predictions
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 3:00pm EST at Five Star Stadium, Macon, GA
@
Mercer
Bears
6-2
Spread
-18.5
50%
50%
Spread
The Citadel Bulldogs +18.5
Mercer Bears -18.5
Moneyline
The Citadel Bulldogs +680
Mercer Bears -1220
Total
Over 52.5 (-108)
Under 52.5 (-115)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
0 available
Professional Picks On This Game
No professional picks are available for this matchup.
The Citadel vs. Mercer Prediction: Bears Should Win, but Pass at -18.5
Analysis updated October 31, 2026 at 1:54 AM CDT
Mercer has won four straight games and six straight meetings with The Citadel. The Bulldogs’ slow, run-heavy approach makes the large spread harder to trust.
Mercer has the stronger case to win
Mercer University Athletics reports that the Bears enter Saturday’s home game 6-2 overall and 3-1 in the Southern Conference after four straight wins. The Citadel is 2-6 and winless in four conference games. Mercer has also won the past six meetings by an average of 22.8 points, making the Bears the clear favorite.
Mercer’s backfield gives it another advantage. The Mercer Cluster, the university’s student newspaper, reports that Devon Caldwell averages 6.9 yards per carry and Zahmari Palode-Gary averages 7.0. Quarterback JP Pickles has completed 51 of 70 passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. Those numbers support a Mercer win, but the -1220 moneyline demands too high a price.
The Citadel can shorten the game
The Citadel Athletics reports that the Bulldogs average 198.1 rushing yards and 32:41 of possession per game. Running back Gavin Garcia has 683 yards and six touchdowns, while quarterback Quentin Hayes has added 313 rushing yards. That ground-heavy approach can reduce the number of possessions and make Mercer’s -18.5 spread difficult to cover.
The Bulldogs’ scoring limits keep Mercer in control of the matchup. The Citadel averages only 12.8 points in conference games and allows 33.8 points per game. Still, without confirmed injury information, line movement or broader efficiency data, there isn’t enough evidence to lay 18.5 points or bet the 52.5 total. The wager is a pass.
Pick
Mercer Bears
Confidence
medium
Betting lean
Pass