Mississippi State
Bulldogs
4-3
Spread
+20.5
NCAAF Predictions
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Predictions
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 7:30pm EST at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
@
Texas
Longhorns
5-2
Spread
-20.5
50%
50%
Spread
Mississippi State Bulldogs +20.5
Texas Longhorns -20.5
Moneyline
Mississippi State Bulldogs +900
Texas Longhorns -1600
Total
Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-105)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
1 available
Professional Picks On This Game
King Jon Sanderson
Spread pick
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction: Longhorns Favored, but Price Calls for a Pass
Analysis updated October 30, 2026 at 8:38 AM CDT
Mississippi State must replace injured quarterback Kamario Taylor, while Texas is preparing to start a new left tackle. The Longhorns should win, but neither available side offers a strong wager.
Mississippi State faces uncertainty at quarterback
The Houston Chronicle reports that Mississippi State will turn to redshirt freshman Billy Puckett or transfer A.J. Swann after Kamario Taylor underwent season-ending toe surgery. That unsettled quarterback situation makes an upset tougher against a Texas team coming off a 34-27 win over Ole Miss, but the Longhorns' -1350 moneyline offers little return.
Mississippi State is 4-3 after three straight losses, while Texas is 5-2 and expected to start Arch Manning at home. Those records and quarterback situations favor Texas, though they don't establish that the Longhorns should cover a 20.5-point spread.
Texas has questions at tackle and edge
Texas will start senior Andre Cojoe at left tackle for the first time because Trevor Goosby is out with a season-ending knee injury, according to the Houston Chronicle. Burnt Orange Nation, a Texas sports publication, reported that edge Colin Simmons was downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury and Richard Wesley remained out. Those absences add risk when backing Texas to win by more than three touchdowns.
Running back Hollywood Smothers and wide receiver Cam Coleman were removed from Thursday's availability report, while receiver Kaliq Lockett remained probable. That helps Texas' skill-position depth, but it isn't enough to justify laying -20.5 without supporting performance data. Texas is the likely winner, but the moneyline is too expensive and the spread requires a margin the available evidence doesn't support. Pass.
Pick
Texas Longhorns
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass