California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack Predictions

NC State can attack California on the ground

NCFootballNews, a site covering North Carolina college football, reports that NC State averages 162.3 rushing yards per game, while California allows 192.1. The Wolfpack also convert 52.5% of their third downs, compared with 36.4% for the Bears. That matchup makes NC State the likely winner and helps explain SPF’s seven-point spread.

California has lost two straight, falling 41-7 to Wake Forest and 59-20 to SMU. NC State has lost three of its past four, but its season averages of 32.3 points and 419.9 yards still top California’s 23.4 points and 369.3 yards.

Key absences weaken the case for a wager

NC State will play under interim coach Todd Goebbel after Dave Doeren’s dismissal. Running back Jayden Scott and offensive linemen Spike Sowells Jr., Daniel Cruz and Yousef Mugharbil are out, leaving the Wolfpack short-handed in the area that best matches up with California’s defense.

California’s lineup also remains unsettled. Running backs Adam Mohammed and Ashten Emory, three receivers and three offensive linemen are questionable. Those unresolved decisions make the spread and 56.5-point total difficult to price with confidence.

Prediction

NC State is the more likely winner, but SPF’s -265 moneyline is too expensive given the coaching change and confirmed absences. The Wolfpack’s offensive line losses also make laying seven points unattractive. Pass.