Northwestern
Wildcats
4-1
Spread
-7
NCAAF Predictions
Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans Predictions
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:00pm EST at Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
@
Michigan State
Spartans
2-4
Spread
+7
50%
50%
Spread
Northwestern Wildcats -7
Michigan State Spartans +7
Moneyline
Northwestern Wildcats -298
Michigan State Spartans +240
Total
Over 49.5 (-108)
Under 49.5 (-112)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
4 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
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Casper Kohke
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Eli Rothstein
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Bryan Pratt
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Northwestern vs. Michigan State Prediction: Wildcats Have the Edge at -7
Analysis updated October 16, 2026 at 7:44 AM CDT
Michigan State’s defensive absences strengthen the case for Northwestern, though the Wildcats’ -298 moneyline is too expensive.
Northwestern’s offense has the matchup edge
Northwestern enters Saturday at 4-1 and averages 35.4 points and 437.4 yards per game, according to AOL / Detroit Free Press. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,172 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions while adding six rushing scores. That production makes the Wildcats the likelier winner, but their -298 moneyline offers little value.
Michigan State is expected to be without its top three interior linebackers and top three cornerbacks, according to AOL / Lansing State Journal. The Spartans also will be missing starting left tackle Ben Murawski and starting running back Cam Edwards. Those absences favor Northwestern on both sides of the ball and support laying 7 points instead of paying the steep moneyline price.
Why the spread still carries risk
Michigan State lost 38-37 in overtime to Illinois on Oct. 10, when Alessio Milivojevic completed 22 of 26 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. That result shows the Spartans can produce enough offense to threaten a 7-point spread, even though it was their fourth consecutive loss.
Northwestern also has availability concerns. AOL / Detroit Free Press lists linebacker Amare Jordan and tight end Luke Dehnicke as doubtful, with defensive back Robert Fitzgerald questionable. The Wildcats are the preferred side at -7, but those uncertainties keep confidence at medium. There isn’t enough information on defensive trends, pace or weather to justify a wager on the 49.5 total.
Pick
Northwestern Wildcats
Confidence
medium
Betting lean
Northwestern Wildcats -7