Dayton Flyers vs Butler Bulldogs Predictions

Butler’s turnover advantage drives the matchup

Butler enters Saturday’s Pioneer Football League game at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play. University of Dayton Athletics reports that the Bulldogs lead the nation with a plus-2.33 turnover margin, a major reason they’re favored by 5.5 points at home.

Quarterback Gabe Passini has produced 896 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 436 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. His ability to attack in two ways helps explain why Butler averages 37.3 points, but the Bulldogs’ -221 moneyline asks bettors to pay heavily for the more likely winner.

Why Dayton can cover 5.5 points

Dayton is 4-1 and averages 33.6 points while allowing 19.8. Bryce Schondelmyer has thrown for 939 yards and nine touchdowns, and running backs Luke Hansen and Mason Hackett have combined for 501 yards and six scores. That balance gives the Flyers more than one way to answer Butler’s offense.

The Flyers also lead the PFL in first-down defense, kickoff-return defense, net punting and fewest tackles for loss allowed. Those results matter against a Butler team that benefits from turnovers and favorable field position: Dayton has shown it can keep drives on schedule and make the Bulldogs cover more ground.

Butler won the 2025 meeting 23-17, a six-point margin that was close to Saturday’s spread. The current teams aren’t identical, and no injury, lineup or weather information is available, so confidence should remain low. Still, Dayton’s scoring and field-position strengths make +5.5 preferable to Butler’s expensive moneyline.