Navy
Midshipmen
2-3
Spread
+6.5
NCAAF Predictions
Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners Predictions
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 8:00pm EST at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
@
UTSA
Roadrunners
5-1
Spread
-6.5
50%
50%
Spread
Navy Midshipmen +6.5
UTSA Roadrunners -6.5
Moneyline
Navy Midshipmen +210
UTSA Roadrunners -258
Total
Over 54.5 (-115)
Under 54.5 (-105)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
5 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Garrett Perry
Total pick
Don Williams
Spread pick
King Jon Sanderson
Total pick
Danny Soros
Spread pick
Chris Cohen
Spread pick
Navy vs. UTSA Prediction: Midshipmen Can Test a Vulnerable Run Defense
Analysis updated October 16, 2026 at 8:49 AM CDT
UTSA enters Saturday 5-1 and favored by 6.5 points, but Navy’s ground game has a clear route to keeping the first meeting between these programs close.
Navy’s rushing attack can threaten the spread
Underdog Dynasty, a college football publication, reports that UTSA allows 185 rushing yards per game, ranking 121st nationally. That weakness matters against Navy after quarterback Jackson Gutierrez rushed for 232 yards and Michael Barrow added 107 yards on 14 carries in last week’s 34-26 comeback win over Tulsa.
Navy also has fullback Vic Listorti, who averages 5.9 yards per carry. The Midshipmen trailed Tulsa 26-14 in the second half before scoring 20 unanswered points, evidence that their running game can produce even when they’re forced to rally.
Why UTSA is still the likely winner
UTSA is 5-1 overall, 2-0 in the American Conference and 3-0 at the Alamodome. Quarterback Owen McCown has completed 68.7% of his passes with only two interceptions through six games, while Will Henderson III averages 6.2 yards per carry on 484 rushing yards.
Those results make UTSA the more likely winner, but its 3-0 record in one-score games doesn’t make a 6.5-point cover automatic. No confirmed starter or injury information is available, which keeps confidence in the matchup low.
Navy vs. UTSA betting pick
SPF lists UTSA at -258 on the moneyline and -6.5 against the spread, with Navy at +210 and +6.5. The favorite’s moneyline price is steep, while Navy’s rushing matchup offers a specific reason to take the points. The lean is Navy +6.5, even though UTSA remains the pick to win.
The total is 55.5 at -110 on either side. The available evidence doesn’t establish a clear pace or scoring edge, so there’s no total wager.
Pick
UTSA Roadrunners
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Navy Midshipmen +6.5