TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears Predictions

Baylor’s recent form points to the favorite

Baylor enters 4-1, unbeaten in Big 12 play and favored by 5.5 points at home. TCU is 2-3 and 0-2 in the conference. Yahoo Sports / Roundtable Sports reports that the Bears have outscored opponents 158-54 during their four-game winning streak, giving Baylor a clear form advantage.

Quarterback DJ Lagway strengthened that case by throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns in Baylor’s 55-19 win at Arizona State. TCU quarterback Jaden Craig managed 187 passing yards in a 17-10 loss to BYU on October 3, a recent result that makes it harder to trust the Horned Frogs to keep pace.

Availability keeps confidence in check

TCU listed tight end Kari Ashley and receiver Jeremy Scott as probable, while receiver F. Fierro and linebacker M. Short were out. Kicker Kyle Lemmermann was a question mark, adding uncertainty to TCU’s special teams.

Baylor also listed defensive lineman Devonte Tezino and receiver Ashton Jones out, and safety Cole Redding is sidelined for the season with a knee injury. Those absences prevent a higher-confidence play, but Baylor’s recent scoring gives the Bears the stronger case at -5.5.

There is no sourced public-betting split, opening line or line-movement history for this matchup. The available evidence supports Baylor against the spread, but not a stronger market-based conclusion.