Virginia
Cavaliers
4-2
Spread
+10
NCAAF Predictions
Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Predictions
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:00pm EST
@
SMU
Mustangs
4-1
Spread
-10
50%
50%
Spread
Virginia Cavaliers +10
SMU Mustangs -10
Moneyline
Virginia Cavaliers +285
SMU Mustangs -360
Total
Over 51.5 (-115)
Under 51.5 (-105)
Professional Picks
6 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Elijah Murtah
Spread pick
Benjamin Sturn
Spread pick
Brooke Smolka
Spread pick
Chris Cohen
Spread pick
Chris Cohen
Total pick
Carter Stevenson
Total pick
Virginia vs. No. 24 SMU Prediction: Pass on the Mustangs at -9.5
Analysis updated October 17, 2026 at 7:09 AM CDT
SMU is the likely winner in Dallas, but Virginia’s pass defense and ball security leave no clear value at the SPF prices.
Virginia’s pass defense challenges SMU’s strength
The Virginia Cavaliers Official Athletic Site reports that SMU leads the ACC with 341.0 passing yards per game, while Virginia leads the conference by allowing 161.8 passing yards per game. That matchup makes SMU difficult to back as a 9.5-point favorite, even though the Mustangs are 4-1 overall and ranked No. 24.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has made 31 career starts since 2023, and the Mustangs are 9-0 in ACC home games since joining the conference in 2024. Those advantages support SMU as the likely winner, but the -340 moneyline requires too much risk for a small return.
Why the best bet is Pass
Virginia has committed only two turnovers through six games, tied for the fewest in the ACC. Protecting the ball would help the Cavaliers limit SMU’s scoring chances and stay within the 9.5-point spread.
There’s no confirmed injury information, weather report or public betting data to strengthen a wager on either side or the 51.5 total. SMU should win at home, but neither its moneyline nor spread offers a clear betting edge. Pass.
Pick
SMU Mustangs
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass