Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions

Rays vs. Guardians odds

Tampa Bay is a -136 moneyline favorite for ALCS Game 5, while Cleveland is +113. The Rays are -1.5, the Guardians are +1.5, and the total is 6.5, with the under at -118 and the over at -102.

Rasmussen and Messick set up a tight game

MLB.com reports that Drew Rasmussen will start for Tampa Bay after allowing two runs and striking out 17 in 14 innings across two postseason starts. Cleveland starter Parker Messick has a 3.09 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings over three postseason appearances. Those results point to a close matchup, but they don’t provide enough separation to support Tampa Bay at -136.

Cleveland also preserved three key relievers during Tampa Bay’s 7-3 win in Game 4. MLB.com reported that Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski did not pitch and were available to factor into Game 5. Foster Griffin worked 3 2/3 innings and threw 44 pitches, reducing Cleveland’s depth beyond those rested arms.

The starting lineups were still projected rather than confirmed. Cleveland’s catcher was one unsettled spot because Austin Hedges had caught all but one of Messick’s starts, while projected starter Patrick Bailey had not caught him. MLB.com listed no notable injuries for either club and forecast clear weather at Progressive Field.

Prediction and best bet

Rasmussen’s postseason work makes Tampa Bay the slightly likelier winner, but the available evidence doesn’t justify laying -136 against Messick and a rested Cleveland bullpen. The best betting decision is to pass.