Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions

Williams has the stronger October profile

The Associated Press reports that Gavin Williams is scheduled to face Griffin Jax in ALCS Game 3, with the series tied 1-1. Williams went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and led the American League in strikeouts during the regular season. His ability to miss bats gives Cleveland the clearest matchup advantage.

Jax had the lower regular-season ERA at 3.52 despite an 8-10 record, so Tampa Bay isn't facing an obvious pitching disadvantage. This would be his first postseason start, however, adding uncertainty that Williams doesn't carry. Both pitchers are only scheduled starters, and confirmed lineups aren't available.

Cleveland is more likely to win than cover the price

SPF lists Cleveland at -134 and Tampa Bay at +111. Williams' strikeout record and Cleveland's home field make the Guardians the likelier winner, but those factors don't create enough separation to justify the favorite's price against a starter with Jax's ERA. The moneyline is a pass.

The total is 6.5, with the Over at -120 and the Under at -101. Cleveland won Game 1 by a 7-3 score before Tampa Bay took Game 2, 3-1, but two different results and no confirmed lineup or bullpen information leave too little support for a total wager.

MLB moved the game five hours earlier to 1:00 p.m. ET because rain was expected in Cleveland, according to the Associated Press. Without a more specific game-time forecast, the schedule change isn't a sound reason to bet either side or the total.