Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

Game outlook

Tampa Bay leads the ALCS 3-2 after a 3-1 win Sunday and can clinch the pennant Monday night. The Rays are -150, while Cleveland is +124. Tampa Bay is the likely winner, but the uncertainty surrounding Cleveland's pitching plan makes the price difficult to assess.

MLB.com lists Freddy Peralta as Tampa Bay's starter. Cleveland plans a bullpen game and may start Slade Cecconi because Gavin Williams isn't available on short rest. That clear advantage in starting pitching favors the Rays.

Pitching matchup

Peralta has a 0.79 ERA and a 6-0 record over nine appearances since Aug. 26. He also threw six scoreless innings against Cleveland in Game 2. MLB.com reported that his nine-pitch relief appearance in Game 4 replaced a between-starts bullpen session and shouldn't limit him Monday.

Cleveland has rested options behind its opener. Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee didn't pitch in Game 5 and could handle significant innings, while Hunter Gaddis has worked 7 2/3 scoreless innings this postseason. Those available arms give Cleveland a plausible path through the game, but their roles haven't been confirmed.

Betting assessment

The total is only 6.5 runs, so laying -150 requires Tampa Bay to win a game expected to offer little scoring margin. Peralta makes the Rays the pick to advance, but Cleveland's unsettled pitching sequence leaves too much uncertainty to recommend that price. Pass the moneyline.