Chicago State
Cougars
1-4
Spread
+50.5
NCAAF Predictions
Chicago State Cougars vs Tarleton State Texans Predictions
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:00pm EST at Tarleton Memorial Stadium, Stephenville, TX
@
Tarleton State
Texans
4-0
Spread
-50.5
50%
50%
Spread
Chicago State Cougars +50.5
Tarleton State Texans -50.5
Moneyline
Chicago State Cougars
Tarleton State Texans
Total
Over 64.5 (-122)
Under 64.5 (-101)
Professional Picks
1 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Lane Gibson
Total pick
Chicago State vs. Tarleton State Prediction: Texans Should Win, but Pass at -49.5
Analysis updated October 3, 2026 at 8:41 AM CDT
The unbeaten Texans face a first-year Cougars team that has allowed at least 40 points four times. Winning by 50 is a separate question.
Tarleton has several ways to attack
Tarleton State University Athletics lists the Texans at 4-0 and Chicago State at 1-4 entering Saturday’s game in Stephenville. Tarleton averages 498.0 yards per game, second in the FCS, while Chicago State has allowed at least 40 points in four of its five games.
The Texans can attack on the ground or through the air. Tylan Hines averages an FCS-leading 191.7 rushing yards, Kaden Anderson ranks third with 300.0 passing yards per game, and Marquis Willis ranks sixth with 103.5 receiving yards per game. That balance makes Tarleton the likely winner.
The price calls for a pass
Tarleton has averaged 47.5 points across two home games and won 10 of its past 11 at Memorial Stadium, but the Texans must win by at least 50 to cover the SPF spread of -49.5. The available results establish a large matchup advantage, not a reliable 50-point margin, so the side is a pass.
The SPF total is 60.5, with the over at -133 and the under at +107. Chicago State averages 30.6 points, but that figure includes a 78-7 win over Kentucky Christian. With no stronger evidence about how much the Cougars will score against Tarleton, neither total wager is justified.
Pick
Tarleton State Texans
Confidence
medium
Betting lean
Pass