Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Predictions
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 6:35pm EST at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
Orioles
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks On This Game
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction: Bassitt's ERA Edge Meets a -122 Price
Analysis updated September 21, 2026 at 11:02 PM CDT
Baltimore is the tentative winner pick on the probable pitching matchup. The betting call is Pass.
Probable starters favor Baltimore
Chris Bassitt's 4.64 ERA compares favorably with Max Scherzer's 6.07 entering Toronto's September 22 visit to Baltimore. Dimers, a sports prediction site, lists Bassitt and Scherzer as the probable starters. That ERA gap points toward the Orioles, but it doesn't establish that SPF's -122 moneyline is worth backing.
At -122, Baltimore needs to win roughly 55% of the time for a bet to break even. ERA alone can't establish that probability, particularly without confirmed lineups or bullpen availability. Toronto's +101 price doesn't make the Blue Jays a value bet by default.
Total: Pass
SPF lists the total at 7.5, with over -114 and under -106. Both starters' ERAs invite consideration of the over, but those figures don't tell us how deep either pitcher will work or what the offenses and relievers will contribute. Neither side of the total warrants a bet.