Chicago
Bears
3-1
Spread
-1.5
NFL Predictions
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Predictions
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 1:00pm EST at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
@
Green Bay
Packers
Spread
+1.5
50%
50%
Spread
Chicago Bears -1.5
Green Bay Packers +1.5
Moneyline
Chicago Bears -125
Green Bay Packers +105
Total
Over 45.5 (-118)
Under 45.5 (-102)
Professional Picks
2 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Spread pick
Simon Says
Spread pick
Bears vs. Packers Prediction: Chicago's Rushing Edge Meets a Quarterback Change
Analysis updated October 10, 2026 at 3:16 AM CDT
The Bears lead the NFL in rushing, while Green Bay ranks last. Chicago is the likelier winner, but its quarterback change makes the price difficult to back.
Chicago's ground game is the clearest edge
The Chicago Bears report that Tyson Bagent will start in place of Caleb Williams, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Chicago is a 1.5-point road favorite and -125 on the moneyline, so bettors must decide whether its rushing advantage can offset the quarterback change.
Chicago leads the NFL with 196.3 rushing yards per game, while the Green Bay Packers report that their offense ranks last in rushing. Bears leading rusher Kyle Monangai is out with a toe injury, but D'Andre Swift practiced fully Friday and has no game designation. Swift has rushed for 311 yards and three touchdowns, keeping Chicago's strongest matchup advantage intact.
Green Bay has problems up front
The Packers list guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk as doubtful and center/guard Jager Burton as questionable. Green Bay has already used multiple combinations at left guard, and more changes could hurt an offense converting only 26.1% of its third downs.
Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are also questionable for Green Bay. Their availability matters against Chicago's league-leading rushing attack, especially with Bagent starting and the Bears likely to lean on Swift.
Prediction
Chicago is the likelier winner because it can run the ball and has allowed only 282.3 yards per game, the NFL's third-lowest figure. That defensive ranking comes with a warning: opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per play, which ranks 27th.
The Bears' -125 moneyline requires more confidence than the evidence provides. Bagent's start and Monangai's absence create too much uncertainty at that price, so the betting lean is Pass.
Pick
Chicago Bears
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass