UC Davis
Aggies
Spread
+25.5
NCAAF Predictions
UC Davis Aggies vs SMU Mustangs Predictions
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 4:00pm EST at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
@
SMU
Mustangs
Spread
-25.5
50%
50%
Spread
UC Davis Aggies +25.5
SMU Mustangs -25.5
Moneyline
UC Davis Aggies +1300
SMU Mustangs -2800
Total
Over 58.5 (-110)
Under 58.5 (-110)
Professional Picks
0 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
No professional picks are available for this matchup.
UC Davis at SMU prediction: Turnovers matter with Mustangs favored by 25.5
Analysis updated September 12, 2026 at 5:48 AM CDT
Jennings gives SMU a reason for optimism, but a productive opener doesn't establish that the Mustangs can cover SPF's 25.5-point spread.
SMU's passing production comes with a warning
Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns in SMU's 27-24 opening win over Florida State, according to sports publication Athlon Sports. SMU also committed four turnovers. That combination matters at SPF's SMU -25.5: the passing production supports an outright pick, while lost possessions could make a 26-point win harder to deliver.
Athlon Sports reports that UC Davis beat San Diego 49-17 behind Treynor Cleeland's 294 passing yards and five touchdown passes. Matteo Perez added 123 rushing yards on nine carries. Those results show how the Aggies scored against San Diego; they don't establish how well they'll move the ball against SMU.
Betting call: Pass
SMU is the outright pick, but its -2800 moneyline requires a win probability above 96.5% to break even. These recent results don't justify that level of confidence. They also don't establish an edge on either side of the 25.5-point spread.
SPF lists the total at 58.5, with both sides priced at -110. One recent game from each offense offers little basis for projecting this matchup's pace or scoring, so the total is a pass as well.
Pick
SMU Mustangs
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass