Lindenwood
Lions
Spread
+19.5
NCAAF Predictions
Lindenwood Lions vs Missouri State Bears Predictions
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 7:00pm EST at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO
@
Missouri State
Bears
Spread
-19.5
50%
50%
Spread
Lindenwood Lions +19.5
Missouri State Bears -19.5
Moneyline
Lindenwood Lions +950
Missouri State Bears -1650
Total
Over 52.5 (-115)
Under 52.5 (-105)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
0 available
Professional Picks On This Game
No professional picks are available for this matchup.
Lindenwood vs. Missouri State prediction: Late struggles matter at +19.5
Analysis updated September 11, 2026 at 6:21 AM CDT
The Lions have topped 150 rushing yards in both games, but they've been outscored 33-10 in fourth quarters.
Can Lindenwood stay close?
Lindenwood's running game gives it a way to sustain drives against Missouri State, but its late-game struggles matter with SPF offering the Lions +19.5. According to Lindenwood University Athletics, the school's athletics department, the Lions rushed for 170 yards against Charleston Southern and 155 at Stony Brook. They've also been outscored 33-10 in fourth quarters.
That weakness cost Lindenwood at Stony Brook: a 32-23 lead early in the fourth quarter became a 36-32 loss. Another poor finish could put a cover at risk even if the Lions compete for much of Saturday's game.
Prediction and betting view
Missouri State opened with a 50-0 loss at Texas A&M, the same school release reports. That result alone doesn't establish how effectively the Bears can move the ball against Lindenwood or whether they merit a 19.5-point spread.
SPF prices Missouri State at -1650 and Lindenwood at +950, with a total of 52.5. The Bears are the likely winner based on that market, but their moneyline requires roughly a 94.3% win probability to break even. The evidence doesn't justify that commitment, a spread pick or a total bet. Pass.
Pick
Missouri State Bears
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass