Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes Predictions

Iowa's running game meets a tougher question

Iowa's Kamari Moulton ran for 183 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries against Northern Illinois, according to NBC Sports. Iowa State allowed Southeast Missouri State just 67 rushing yards on 45 attempts. That matchup puts Iowa's ground game at the center of the decision to lay 14 points at SportsPicksForum.

NBC Sports reports that Iowa won its opener 40-0 with a 507-120 edge in total yards. Iowa State won 38-10 but had a narrower 303-209 yardage advantage. Iowa gets the tentative winner pick at home, though those results against different opponents don't establish a likely winning margin.

Cyclones defensive end Isaac Terrell added three sacks and a forced fumble in the opener, per NBC Sports. Pressure could help Iowa State stall drives if Moulton doesn't repeat his rushing success, but one game doesn't establish how reliably the Cyclones can do either.

Betting decision

SPF lists Iowa at -650 and Iowa State at +470. Iowa's moneyline requires a win probability above roughly 86.7% to break even. The opening results don't justify that confidence or a bet on either side of the 14-point spread. An Iowa win by exactly 14 would push.

The total is 40.5, with over -112 and under -108. Two strong defensive openers against different opponents don't provide a sound scoring projection for this matchup. Pass on the available markets.