Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs New Mexico State Aggies Predictions

Creel meets Conference USA's top run defense

Jacksonville State is 5-2 overall and 3-0 in Conference USA after four straight wins, according to Jacksonville State University Athletics. The Gamecocks are 3-point road favorites at SPF, with a -162 moneyline, but New Mexico State's defense makes both prices hard to back.

The Albuquerque Journal reports that New Mexico State allows 109.14 rushing yards per game, the best mark in Conference USA. That unit must contain quarterback Caden Creel, who has passed for 1,637 yards and 12 touchdowns while leading Jacksonville State with 500 rushing yards.

New Mexico State can shorten the game

Aggies running back James Jones leads the conference with 111 rushing yards per game and averages 6.5 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown in New Mexico State's 30-24 win over Sam Houston, giving the 3-4 Aggies a way to control possession against the conference-leading Gamecocks.

Adam Damante will start at quarterback for New Mexico State, the Albuquerque Journal reports. He threw for 160 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against Sam Houston, but Jacksonville State has allowed a conference-low 19 plays of at least 20 yards. That limits the appeal of New Mexico State at +136.

Betting outlook

Jacksonville State is the more likely winner, but -162 asks bettors to pay a steep price in a matchup built around two effective rushing attacks. The Gamecocks also haven't played since beating FIU 27-24 on October 13, and the latest availability information did not include official player statuses for this game. With those uncertainties and no opening price or line movement to provide context, the betting lean is Pass.