Oklahoma City
Thunder
4-0
Spread
-5.5
NBA Predictions
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:30pm EST at American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
@
Dallas
Mavericks
Spread
+5.5
50%
50%
Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
Dallas Mavericks +5.5
Moneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder -230
Dallas Mavericks +190
Total
Over 228.5 (-112)
Under 228.5 (-108)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
1 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Jon Dorsey
Total pick
Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction: Oklahoma City Is the Likely Winner, but Pass at -205
Analysis updated October 28, 2026 at 1:31 AM CDT
The 4-0 Thunder have the stronger results, but their depleted roster makes a -205 moneyline difficult to justify.
Oklahoma City's injuries make the price hard to back
Oklahoma City enters Wednesday's 9:30 p.m. ET game at 4-0 after beating Phoenix 125-114 on Monday. The Thunder also swept last season's three meetings with Dallas, but laying -205 on the moneyline or 5.5 points requires more certainty than their current roster provides.
NBA Official, the league's injury-report publisher, lists Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams as out. Ajay Mitchell is questionable with a right ankle sprain after scoring a career-high 30 points Monday, adding another risk for anyone considering Oklahoma City at this price.
Dallas also has major availability questions
Dallas beat Miami by four points Monday behind Cooper Flagg's 29 points, 11 assists and five steals. CBS Sports / Field Level Media reports that Flagg averaged only 9.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists in two games against Oklahoma City last season, so one strong performance doesn't establish a favorable matchup.
Dereck Lively II and Sergio de Larrea are out for Dallas, while Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic are doubtful. Kyrie Irving, Naji Marshall and Caleb Martin are questionable, which makes Dallas +5.5 difficult to support and leaves too many scoring variables to bet the total of 229.5. Oklahoma City is the likely winner, but the moneyline, spread and total are all passes.
Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass