Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

An incomplete pitching matchup

The SPF moneyline favors Milwaukee at -143, but the most important part of the matchup remains unsettled. The Associated Press reports that Jacob Misiorowski will start for the Brewers, while Rays manager Kevin Cash had not chosen Tampa Bay’s starter. Without the other half of the pitching matchup, Milwaukee’s price is too high to recommend.

The Brewers lead the World Series 3-1, though Tampa Bay forced Game 5 with a 4-3 victory in 12 innings. That result ended Milwaukee’s eight-game winning streak and showed the risk of paying a premium to back the Brewers.

Key hitters entering Game 5

Jackson Chourio went 2-for-5 in Game 4 and is 10-for-20 in the series, giving Milwaukee a hitter in strong form. Rays third baseman Junior Caminero aggravated his left foot and left Game 4, but both Caminero and Cash said he will play Wednesday. His expected availability removes one potential reason to downgrade Tampa Bay’s lineup.

The betting pick

Milwaukee is the likely winner based on the SPF market and its confirmed starter, but that doesn’t make the -143 moneyline a good wager. The Rays are +119, Milwaukee is -1.5 on the run line, and the total is 6.5 with over -120 and under +100. Tampa Bay’s unknown starter and the lack of deeper pitching data leave each market without a supportable edge. Pass.