Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Memphis Tigers Predictions

Pressure on Arkansas State's new quarterback

Memphis recorded six sacks and held UNLV to 3-for-15 on third down in a 27-21 road win, according to Underdog Dynasty, a college football publication. That pressure is the strongest reason to favor the Tigers against Arkansas State, though SPF's -9.5 spread requires a double-digit win.

Texas transfer Trey Owens is projected to start for Arkansas State after Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State. Underdog Dynasty also reports that running back Devin Spencer is out for the season, with Kenyon Clay expected to take a larger role. Those changes leave Arkansas State entering its opener with an untested quarterback-backfield combination.

Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns at UNLV and added 45 rushing yards. The Tigers totaled 190 yards on the ground at 5.8 per carry, giving them ways to sustain drives without relying solely on defensive pressure.

Betting decision

Memphis is the winner pick, but the wager is Pass. SPF's -375 moneyline requires roughly a 79% win probability to break even. One performance doesn't establish that probability or justify laying 9.5 points, and Arkansas State's unknown form doesn't make its +9.5 a bargain.

The total is 55.5, with over -108 and under -112. Arkansas State hasn't played in 2026, leaving no current-game evidence of how its changed offense will perform. Pass on the total as well.