San Francisco
Giants
Moneyline
+138
MLB Predictions
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Predictions
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 4:10pm EST at Citi Field, Queens, New York
@
New York
Mets
3-2
Moneyline
-167
17%
83%
Spread
San Francisco Giants +1.5
New York Mets -1.5
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants +138
New York Mets -167
Total
Over 8 (-107)
Under 8 (-112)
Professional Picks
6 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Phillip Monteith
Spread pick
Phillip Monteith
Total pick
Blake Mitchum
Total pick
Jonah Black
Spread pick
Carlos Nunez
Money pick
Wes Salvato
Spread pick
Giants vs. Mets Prediction: Thornton's ERA Edge at a -186 Price
Analysis updated September 5, 2026 at 5:55 AM CDT
Thornton has the lower ERA over more innings, but that comparison alone doesn't justify backing New York at -186.
Pitching edge and price
The Mets have the stronger pitching case on the available numbers. CBS Sports lists probable starter Zac Thornton with a 2.93 ERA over 61⅓ innings, compared with Anthony Molina's 3.77 ERA over just 14⅓ for San Francisco. That favors New York as the likely winner, though Molina's small sample limits the comparison.
SPF lists the Mets at -186 and the Giants at +153. New York's price requires a win probability above roughly 65% to break even. The ERA gap doesn't establish that probability, and Molina's limited workload isn't a reason to back San Francisco. The wager is a pass.
Availability and the total
CBS Sports lists Giants shortstop Willy Adames with an elbow injury and third baseman Matt Chapman with an abdomen injury, with neither expected back for this game. The same report lists Mets reliever Devin Williams out until at least September 11 with a shoulder injury, removing a bullpen option behind Thornton.
FantasyPros, a fantasy sports analysis site, provides projected rather than confirmed lineups. With the batting orders unsettled and both starters still probable, there's no supported scoring edge against SPF's total of 8, priced at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Pass on the total.
Pick
New York Mets
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass