Memphis
Tigers
Spread
+8.5
NCAAF Predictions
Memphis Tigers vs Boise State Broncos Predictions
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 6:00pm EST at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
@
Boise State
Broncos
Spread
-8.5
50%
50%
Spread
Memphis Tigers +8.5
Boise State Broncos -8.5
Moneyline
Memphis Tigers +280
Boise State Broncos -355
Total
Over 54.5 (-120)
Under 54.5 (+100)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
1 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Carter Stevenson
Total pick
Memphis vs. Boise State: Tigers’ Rushing Production Tests an 8.5-Point Spread
Analysis updated September 12, 2026 at 5:58 AM CDT
Memphis has averaged 265 rushing yards through two games. Whether that translates against Boise State is the key question for bettors.
Can Memphis sustain its ground game?
Memphis’ rushing attack gives Boise State something to answer as an 8.5-point home favorite at SPF. CBS Sports lists J. Carter with 280 yards and five touchdowns on 34 carries during the Tigers’ 2-0 start. Sustaining that production would help Memphis keep drives alive and challenge the spread.
Boise State produced 274 total yards, including 93 rushing yards, in its lone game. Quarterback M. Madsen threw three touchdowns without an interception, according to CBS Sports. Those scoring throws are encouraging, but one game doesn't establish how consistently the Broncos can move the ball against Memphis.
Betting outlook
SPF prices Boise State at -355 and Memphis at +280. The Broncos are the market’s likely winner, but the early offensive numbers lack opponent context and defensive comparisons. They don't establish a fair win probability or justify a wager on either side of the 8.5-point spread. Pass, with no score prediction.
The total is 54.5, with over -120 and under +100. Football weather site weather.football forecasts dry conditions, roughly 85°F and winds around 4 mph at kickoff. That gives little reason to expect weather to suppress scoring, but it doesn't establish an over edge.
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass