Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kentucky Wildcats Predictions

Can Alabama's defense deliver again?

Alabama held East Carolina to 162 yards in a 48-10 opening win, according to NBC Sports. That defensive performance is the strongest reason to favor the Crimson Tide at Kentucky, where SPF lists Alabama at -10.5. Still, one result against a different opponent doesn't establish that Alabama should win by at least 11.

NBC Sports reports that Kentucky beat Youngstown State 45-13 as Kenny Minchey completed 18 of 27 passes for 301 yards and four touchdowns. That gives Alabama a productive passing attack to prepare for, though Minchey's opener doesn't establish how he'll perform against the Tide.

Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell threw for 256 yards and rushed for 86 against East Carolina. His ability to gain yards both ways adds to Kentucky's defensive assignments after the Wildcats allowed Youngstown State 305 total yards.

Prediction and price

Alabama is the pick to win, with low confidence. SPF's -395 moneyline requires roughly an 80% win probability to break even. These opening performances don't support that level of confidence, so the wager is Pass.

Kentucky is +310 and +10.5, but doubts about Alabama's price don't establish value on the Wildcats. The total is 49.5; two high-scoring openers against different opponents offer too little basis for an over or under bet.