Florida Gators vs Florida State Seminoles Predictions

Florida’s early numbers favor the Gators

Florida remained No. 1 in the Associated Press poll after opening with wins over then-No. 14 Miami and Jacksonville. Florida State University Athletics reports that the Gators have made 43.1% of their three-point attempts and averaged 48.0 rebounds with a plus-16 rebounding margin. Those numbers support Florida as the likely winner, but the -470 moneyline offers little return.

Florida State’s start makes the spread difficult to price

Florida State is also 2-0 and beat Troy 91-68 in its most recent game. The Seminoles have a 93-50 rebounding advantage, an 83.6% free-throw rate and two double-doubles from Marcis Ponder. Those results show why Florida State could compete at home, but they cover only two games and don’t establish value at +9.5.

Wise Guy Team, a college basketball betting-data site, reported that DraftKings had 85% of spread money on Florida -9.5, while Circa had 64%. The sportsbook-specific figures point in the same direction but aren’t market-wide measures. With no confirmed starters or injury information available, neither side of the spread is supported strongly enough for a bet.