Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Colorado has the stronger five-on-five indicators

Sports data site AllSportData lists Colorado at 10-6-2 and Toronto at 8-9-2. The Avalanche average 4.00 goals per game while allowing 3.06, compared with 3.37 scored and 3.32 allowed by the Maple Leafs. Colorado’s advantage also extends to shots: 30.56 for and 27.22 against per game, versus Toronto’s 27.89 for and 29.58 against.

Recent results point the same way. Colorado beat Detroit 4-0 on November 7, while Toronto has lost three straight and was shut out 4-0 by New Jersey on November 8. Those results and season-long numbers make the Avalanche the more likely winner.

Toronto’s special teams make -155 difficult to back

Toronto has converted 28.6% of its power plays and killed 85.9% of its penalties. Both figures top Colorado’s 23.3% power play and 78.2% penalty kill, giving the Maple Leafs a clear advantage when either team takes a penalty.

The goalie matchup remains unconfirmed. AllSportData listed Mackenzie Blackwood and Sergei Bobrovsky as expected but also reported that neither starter had been named. Hockey analytics site Probetrics lists Colorado defenseman Josh Manson and Toronto forward Kirill Marchenko as out.

Colorado is the pick to win, but the Avalanche moneyline at -155 asks bettors to pay a premium before the goalies are confirmed. Toronto’s special-teams edge adds another reason not to lay that price. The wager is a pass.