New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Predictions

Maye tests a vulnerable Bears defense

NFL.com reports that Drake Maye led the league over the past three weeks with 10 touchdown passes, a 119.3 passer rating and 0.38 EPA per dropback. Chicago had allowed 6.0 yards per play, the NFL’s second-highest mark, so backing the Bears at -3 requires trusting that defense against the game’s hottest quarterback.

Chicago’s offense supports its status as the favorite. The New England Patriots reported that the Bears ranked first in rushing offense, plays per drive and yards per drive. Caleb Williams also completed 30 of 36 passes with a touchdown in Week 6 after missing three games with a hamstring injury.

New England’s offensive line limits the upset case

Patriots coach Mike Vrabel confirmed that Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor will start on an offensive line already missing Alijah Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown, Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten. Right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with a foot injury, and Caleb Lomu would replace him if needed. That uncertainty makes New England’s +130 moneyline hard to recommend despite Maye’s recent play.

The Patriots also entered Thursday with a minus-6 turnover margin after 13 giveaways and seven takeaways. Chicago is the likelier winner at Soldier Field, but those New England risks don’t automatically make Bears -3 attractive. Chicago can win a close game without covering.

The betting call

Chicago is -155 on the moneyline and the total is 50.5, but the available evidence doesn’t create a clear edge at any of those prices. Pass on the game.