NFL Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Predictions

Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 4:25pm EST at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Kansas City

Chiefs

Spread -3.5
@
Las Vegas

Raiders

Spread +3.5
50% 50%
Spread Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Moneyline Kansas City Chiefs -192 Las Vegas Raiders +160
Total Over 47.5 (-108) Under 47.5 (-112)

Who wins this game?

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction: Can Las Vegas Cover 4.5 Points?

Analysis updated October 4, 2026 at 7:24 AM CDT

Kansas City is favored by 4.5 points, but Las Vegas' nine takeaways and strong start make the home underdog more appealing than the Chiefs at -225.

Chiefs vs. Raiders outlook

Kansas City and Las Vegas both enter this Week 4 game at Allegiant Stadium with 3-0 records. Silver And Black Pride, SB Nation's Raiders site, reports that each team has scored 88 points. The Chiefs have allowed 50, four fewer than the Raiders.

Las Vegas has nine takeaways, while Kirk Cousins has thrown nine touchdown passes through three games, according to Silver And Black Pride. Those early results support taking 4.5 points with the Raiders, though the absence of injury information and confirmed lineup details keeps confidence low.

Prediction and betting lean

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the likelier winners, but their small edge in points allowed doesn't make the -225 moneyline attractive. The lean is Raiders +4.5 in a matchup between unbeaten division rivals with identical scoring totals.

Pick Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score Chiefs 27, Raiders 24
Confidence low
Betting lean Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
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