Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Predictions

The favorite carries a difficult price

Houston is favored by 3 points and priced at -148 on the moneyline for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Reliant Stadium. Dallas is +3 and +124. The Texans entered Week 4 at 0-3, while the Cowboys were 1-2, so Houston's price requires more confidence than the available team data provides.

Injuries add to the risk

NFL.com reports that Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and safety M.J. Stewart are out. Offensive lineman Ed Ingram, defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall, and linebacker Jake Hansen are questionable, leaving several potential absences unresolved.

Dallas also has confirmed losses: linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Cobie Durant are out with hamstring injuries. Those absences aren't enough to support Dallas +3 without performance or matchup data showing that the Cowboys can exploit Houston's depleted defense.

Houston is the narrow winner pick because the SPF market favors the Texans at home. The betting lean is Pass: -148 is too expensive given Houston's 0-3 record, its injury questions, and the lack of supporting matchup evidence.