Marshall Thundering Herd vs Penn State Nittany Lions Predictions

Marshall’s protection is the key question

Marshall returns a quarterback who led its rushing attack, but turnover along the offensive line complicates the case for taking SPF’s +24.5 against Penn State. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson’s ability to sustain drives matters at that spread, and his past production alone does not establish that Marshall can stay within it.

According to Onward State’s preview, Del Rio-Wilson threw for 2,043 yards and 17 touchdowns and rushed for a team-leading 660 yards in 2025. The preview identifies Jalen Slappy and Tariq Montgomery as returning offensive-line starters and reports nine offseason additions to the line following graduation losses. Those returning roles do not confirm Saturday’s starting lineup.

Onward State also reports that Marshall scored just over 30 points per game last season but allowed 30.3 and ranked ninth in the Sun Belt in total defense. That defensive record raises questions about Marshall’s ability to contain Penn State, though it does not establish a likely margin against this opponent.

The pick and the price

Penn State is the straight-up pick, consistent with SPF’s -3600 moneyline against Marshall’s +1500. A likely winner still needs a defensible price: there is no strong basis here for backing Penn State at -3600 or projecting the 25-point margin needed to cover -24.5. Marshall’s returning quarterback is not enough to justify the underdog wager either.

SPF lists the total at 54.5, with over -108 and under -112. Marshall’s scoring and defensive results both suggest potential for points, but last season’s averages cannot establish an edge on this matchup’s total. Pass on the moneyline, spread and total.