Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Predictions

Miami's price is too steep

Miami enters Monday's home game at 0-3 but is still a -340 moneyline favorite and favored by 8.5 points. Dallas is 1-2. The Heat are the more likely winner, though their record doesn't justify paying such a steep price.

Dallas Mavericks / NBA.com reports that Miami opponents made 42% of their 3-point attempts through three games, the NBA's worst mark at that point. Dallas guard Marcus Sasser shot 57% from three while averaging 11.7 points over the same span. Those small samples aren't enough to support a Mavericks bet, but Miami's perimeter defense makes laying 8.5 points risky.

Dallas has major availability questions

Dallas listed Cooper Flagg as questionable with a left shoulder injury and Caleb Martin as doubtful with a sprained right thumb. Naji Marshall, Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic were ruled out. Those absences favor Miami, but Flagg's uncertain status limits confidence in either side of the spread.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Klay Thompson started Miami's first three games, and Antetokounmpo averaged 28.3 points. That gives the Heat the clearest reason to pick a winner, but not enough reason to bet them at -340.

Betting pick

The total is 236.5, but the available evidence doesn't establish either team's pace or offensive efficiency. Miami is the predicted winner, while the moneyline, spread and total are all a pass.