Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Predictions

Smith draws a favorable matchup

The Jets' passing game is the clearest reason to favor New York at home. The New York Jets report that Geno Smith has completed 69% of his passes for 1,226 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception, while Garrett Wilson leads the AFC with 35 catches. Miami ranks last with four sacks, 29th with four takeaways and 28th in opponent passing yards allowed per play at 7.56.

The records also favor New York. The Jets enter 2-4, while the Dolphins are 0-5 and returning from their bye week.

The moneyline costs too much

New York's offense hasn't played well enough to justify a -218 moneyline. According to the Miami Dolphins, the Jets rank 27th in scoring at 18.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 290.6 yards per game. Smith has also been sacked an NFL-high 19 times for 159 lost yards.

The NFL.com injury report adds uncertainty. Jets running backs Breece Hall and Kene Nwangwu and offensive lineman Dylan Parham are questionable, while offensive lineman Max Mitchell is out. Miami receiver Caleb Douglas is set to return after missing three games, but the Dolphins have several defensive absences or questions, including cornerback Reese Taylor, who is out, and edge rusher Robert Beal Jr., who is doubtful.

Betting verdict

New York is the likelier winner because Smith faces a defense that has struggled to pressure quarterbacks or stop the pass. Still, the Jets' scoring and pass-protection problems make both the -218 moneyline and -4.5 spread difficult to recommend. With no supported edge on the 39.5 total, the betting lean is Pass.