Chicago
Cubs
Moneyline
-123
MLB Predictions
Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Predictions
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 1:05pm EST at Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
@
Boston
Red Sox
Moneyline
+102
78%
22%
Spread
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Boston Red Sox +1.5
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs -123
Boston Red Sox +102
Total
Over 6.5 (-112)
Under 6.5 (-108)
Professional Picks
0 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
No professional picks are available for this matchup.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Prediction: Chicago’s Offense Makes It the Likely Winner
Analysis updated September 25, 2026 at 7:02 AM CDT
The Cubs have a clear advantage in run production, but that doesn’t make their -120 moneyline worth betting in Game 1 at Fenway Park.
Chicago has the stronger offense
Chicago enters Friday’s 1:05 p.m. ET doubleheader opener as a -120 favorite, with Boston at -101. A matchup report from radio station Fox Sports 1260 / iHeartMedia lists the Cubs first in MLB with 841 runs and second with 218 home runs. The Red Sox rank 22nd with 681 runs and 24th with 162 homers. That gap makes Chicago the more likely winner.
Clay Holmes also gives the Cubs a conventional starter after posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.165 WHIP. CBS Sports reports that Boston will open with Alec Gamboa, who has a 1.16 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 31 innings, but the Red Sox haven’t confirmed who will handle the bulk of the game. That uncertainty makes both the side and the 6.5-run total harder to price.
Why the pick is a pass
The Weather Channel reports that a nor’easter forced the schedule change and that a high-wind warning covers the Massachusetts coastline, with gusts up to 50 mph. The regional warning creates added uncertainty for a game at Fenway, particularly when Chicago’s power is central to its advantage.
Boston is also expected to be without Willson Contreras, who told CBS Sports he couldn’t swing without pain because of a bruised right hand. Even with that absence, Chicago’s -120 price is too short to back without clearer information about Boston’s bulk pitcher and the conditions at game time. The Cubs are the likely winner, but the betting lean is Pass.
Pick
Chicago Cubs
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass