MLB Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Predictions

Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 7:05pm EST at Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Tampa Bay

Rays

Moneyline +129
@
New York

Yankees

Moneyline -155
50% 50%
Spread Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 New York Yankees -1.5
Moneyline Tampa Bay Rays +129 New York Yankees -155
Total Over 6.5 (-120) Under 6.5 (+100)

Who wins this game?

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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction: Schlittler Gives New York the Edge

Analysis updated September 24, 2026 at 1:07 AM CDT

New York is the pick to win behind its probable starter. Whether the Yankees are worth SPF's -155 price is a separate question.

Pitching matchup and price

Cam Schlittler's 1.94 ERA against Ian Seymour's 4.38 is the strongest reason to favor the Yankees at SPF's -155 moneyline. NYC Sports Wire, a New York sports outlet, lists right-hander Schlittler and Tampa Bay left-hander Seymour as the probable starters for Thursday's 7:05 p.m. ET game at Yankee Stadium. Neither assignment is confirmed.

At -155, New York needs to win about 60.8% of the time to break even on a wager. The ERA gap supports picking the Yankees, but without confirmed lineups or a clearer view of bullpen availability, it doesn't establish that their chances exceed that threshold. Tampa Bay's +129 price alone isn't a reason to back the Rays.

What Wednesday tells us

WMMB-AM / iHeartMedia, a local radio source covering the Rays, reports that New York won 9-2 on Wednesday ahead of this four-game series finale. That result shows what happened in one game; it doesn't establish a scoring trend for Thursday's different pitching matchup.

SPF lists the total at 6.5, with over -120 and under +100. The probable starters' ERAs alone don't support a full-game scoring projection, so the total is also a pass.

Pick New York Yankees
Confidence low
Betting lean Pass
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