Atlanta
Falcons
Spread
+4.5
NFL Predictions
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Predictions
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 8:15pm EST at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
@
Green Bay
Packers
Spread
-4.5
50%
50%
Spread
Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Green Bay Packers -4.5
Moneyline
Atlanta Falcons +200
Green Bay Packers -245
Total
Over 42.5 (-118)
Under 42.5 (-102)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
15 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Spread pick
Tom Strickland
Total pick
Wes Salvato
Spread pick
Abe Howland
Spread pick
Simon Says
Spread pick
Garrett Perry
Total pick
Oliver Peters
Total pick
Eli Rothstein
Spread pick
Eli Rothstein
Total pick
Franny DiStefano
Spread pick
Lane Gibson
Spread pick
King Jon Sanderson
Total pick
Scott Steele
Spread pick
Percy Walker
Total pick
Casper Kohke
Total pick
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction: Penix Starts, Green Bay Lays 5.5
Analysis updated September 23, 2026 at 5:35 AM CDT
Atlanta changes quarterbacks after five interceptions from its first two passers. Green Bay is the tentative winner pick, but there's no clear wager at SPF's prices.
What Penix changes
Michael Penix Jr.'s first start of 2026 gives Atlanta a different quarterback outlook as a 5.5-point underdog at Green Bay. The Mining Journal / Associated Press, a local newspaper carrying wire-service reporting, reports that Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined for five interceptions and one touchdown through two games. Those results don't establish how Penix will perform, making them a shaky basis for laying the points with Green Bay.
The Green Bay Packers' official injury report lists Penix as a full participant Tuesday despite a knee injury. That supports his readiness to play, but it doesn't establish how much Atlanta's passing game will improve.
Injuries and the betting decision
Atlanta placed cornerback A.J. Terrell on injured reserve Tuesday, while defensive end Samson Ebukam missed practice with a hamstring injury. That gives Green Bay a potential passing-game advantage, though the same report lists Packers receiver Jayden Reed and offensive linemen Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks as nonparticipants. Their Tuesday absences don't establish their game status.
Green Bay is the tentative winner pick, but SPF's -265 moneyline requires roughly a 72.6% win probability to break even. The available evidence doesn't justify that threshold or a six-point margin needed to cover -5.5. Pass on the side; there's also too little scoring evidence to support a bet on the 43.5 total.
Pick
Green Bay Packers
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass