UAlbany Great
Danes
Spread
+24.5
NCAAF Predictions
UAlbany Great Danes vs Buffalo Bulls Predictions
Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 7:00pm EST
@
Buffalo
Bulls
0-0
Spread
-24.5
50%
50%
Spread
UAlbany Great Danes +24.5
Buffalo Bulls -24.5
Moneyline
UAlbany Great Danes +2200
Buffalo Bulls -8000
Total
Over 48.5 (-108)
Under 48.5 (-112)
Professional Picks
4 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Total pick
Carter Stevenson
Spread pick
Primetime Ryan Johnson
Spread pick
Robert Downes
Spread pick
UAlbany vs. Buffalo Prediction: Bulls Should Win, but -8000 Is Too Steep
Analysis updated September 3, 2026 at 2:59 PM CDT
Buffalo should win its season opener, but -8000 offers little value, and UAlbany's ground game makes taking 24.5 points more appealing.
Matchup and SPF odds
Buffalo hosts the 1-0 Great Danes at Broadview Stadium on September 3, with kickoff scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The Bulls should win at home, but the price is prohibitive.
The authoritative SPF market lists Buffalo at -8000 on the moneyline and -24.5 against the spread. UAlbany is +2200 to win outright and +24.5 against the spread. The total is 48.5, with the over at -108 and the under at -112.
The most likely winner is not necessarily the best bet. Buffalo is overwhelmingly more likely to win, but -8000 requires an enormous risk for a minimal return. The spread presents a different question: Can the Bulls win by at least 25 points in their season debut?
UAlbany's running game can keep it close
UAlbany's best chance to stay competitive is on the ground. The Great Danes rushed for 374 yards, averaged 7.1 yards per carry and scored four rushing touchdowns in a 28-14 season-opening win over New Hampshire. They totaled 431 yards.
Joey Koch gained 144 yards and scored a touchdown on seven carries. Quarterback Kai Colon ran for 90 yards, and Rahshan La Mons added 62 yards and a score. Another productive rushing performance would help UAlbany sustain drives, drain the clock and make Buffalo work for a 25-point margin.
UAlbany showed little through the air. Colon completed 7 of 17 passes for 57 yards with an interception, and the Great Danes finished with only 57 passing yards. If Buffalo shuts down the run and keeps Colon in the pocket, the Bulls will have a clearer path to pulling away and covering.
Buffalo opens with Elijah Holmes at quarterback
Elijah Holmes will start at quarterback in Buffalo's 2026 opener. There are no 2026 results or offensive statistics for the Bulls, so how quickly that unit can take control is difficult to gauge.
That uncertainty matters more against the spread than it does when picking the winner. Buffalo can be the better team and still offer no value at -8000 or fail to win by 25 points.
Holmes and Colon are the confirmed starting quarterbacks, but no additional injury or availability information was verified. Without a complete personnel picture, confidence in the projected score and betting lean is limited.
What will decide the game
Buffalo must first contain the ground attack that produced 374 yards in UAlbany's opener. If the Bulls force Colon into obvious passing downs, his ability to extend drives through the air will determine whether the Great Danes can answer Buffalo's scores.
UAlbany also showed resistance on defense. The Great Danes held New Hampshire to 62 rushing yards, recorded four sacks and made one interception. Similar pressure on Holmes would improve their chances of staying within 24.5 points.
The forecast includes a 50% chance of precipitation, but expected rainfall is light and the wind should ease during the evening. Wet conditions could encourage a run-heavy game and a moving clock, though the forecast is not strong enough to drive the pick.
Prediction and betting assessment
Buffalo is the pick to win, but neither its -8000 moneyline nor the likelihood of victory makes it worth backing at that price. Laying 24.5 points also requires the Bulls to dominate immediately in their first game of the season.
UAlbany's rushing attack and defensive showing against New Hampshire provide a plausible route to finishing within 24 points. Colon's limited passing production makes an outright upset hard to support, which leaves the Great Danes as a stronger option against the spread than on the moneyline.
The prediction is Buffalo 31, UAlbany 14. The betting lean is UAlbany +24.5, with low confidence because Buffalo has not yet produced a 2026 game sample.
Pick
Buffalo Bulls
Projected score
Buffalo Bulls 31, UAlbany Great Danes 14
Confidence
low
Betting lean
UAlbany Great Danes +24.5