Denver
Broncos
11-2
Spread
+3
NFL Predictions
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:15pm EST at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
@
Kansas City
Chiefs
1-9
Spread
-3
50%
50%
Spread
Denver Broncos +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Moneyline
Denver Broncos +130
Kansas City Chiefs -155
Total
Over 42.5 (-110)
Under 42.5 (-110)
Professional Picks
16 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Spread pick
Garrett Perry
Spread pick
Abe Howland
Spread pick
Matt O'Brien
Spread pick
Frank Obst
Spread pick
Jason Manning
Total pick
Charles Avery
Spread pick
Elijah Murtah
Total pick
Eli Rothstein
Total pick
Franny DiStefano
Total pick
Brooke Smolka
Total pick
Wes Salvato
Total pick
Scott Steele
Total pick
Percy Walker
Total pick
Lane Gibson
Spread pick
Lane Gibson
Total pick
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction: Denver +3 Has the Stronger Case
Analysis updated September 14, 2026 at 5:08 AM CDT
Bo Nix's record against Kansas City favors taking the points, though key absences change the matchup for both teams.
Nix's results support Denver +3
Bo Nix has thrown seven touchdown passes and one interception while going 3-1 against Kansas City, according to the Denver Broncos' official team preview. Denver swept both meetings in 2025. That gives the Broncos +3 at SPF a concrete case, though four games aren't enough to make Denver a confident outright pick.
SPF lists Kansas City at -155 and Denver at +130 on the moneyline. The Kansas City Chiefs' official preview reports that Denver went 11-2 in one-possession games last season, compared with Kansas City's 1-9. Those records describe last year's finishes; they don't establish either team's chances of winning this opener.
Kansas City's protection faces a test
The Denver Broncos report that Patrick Mahomes is expected to return after a torn ACL. Kansas City will be missing left tackle Josh Simmons because of a back injury, with a rookie expected to replace him. That adds a protection concern for Mahomes' anticipated return and makes laying three points less appealing.
Denver also loses linebacker Jonathon Cooper, who won't play while on the Commissioner's Exempt List, according to the Kansas City Chiefs. The same report lists defensive tackle Chris Jones without an injury designation despite a calf issue. Those availability details temper the Denver lean: take +3 cautiously, with no outright or exact-score prediction.
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Denver Broncos +3