Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions

Oklahoma City should score against Phoenix

Oklahoma City enters 3-0 after beating the Clippers 108-101, while Phoenix is 1-1 after a 131-122 win over Golden State. CBS Sports / Field Level Media reports that the Suns allowed 123.0 points per game and had the NBA’s worst defensive rating through two games. That weakness gives the Thunder a clear path to winning as -410 favorites.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.7 points over Oklahoma City’s first three games, according to the matchup data site Presser Wire. Phoenix also allowed a league-worst 17.5 offensive rebounds per game, and its frontcourt is depleted: Mark Williams is out and Oso Ighodaro is doubtful. Those numbers support Oklahoma City’s advantage, but the -10.5 spread requires more than a win.

Thunder injuries make 10.5 points significant

Jalen Williams will miss the game after suffering a severe left-leg injury against the Clippers, CBS Sports / Field Level Media reports. Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams also left that game with injuries, but neither had a confirmed designation in the available reporting. That uncertainty lowers confidence in Oklahoma City covering a double-digit spread.

Phoenix has enough scoring potential to threaten the number. Devin Booker recorded 43 points, seven rebounds and seven assists against Golden State. The Suns still must limit second chances, especially with coach Jordan Ott using Ryan Dunn and Miles Bridges at center, but Booker’s shot creation gives Phoenix a chance to stay within 10.5 points.

Prediction

Oklahoma City is the more likely winner, but Phoenix +10.5 is the better wager at the SPF price. The Thunder’s injuries make their margin harder to project, so confidence in the spread lean is low.