New York
Mets
Moneyline
+102
MLB Predictions
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Predictions
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 6:40pm EST at loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
@
Miami
Marlins
Moneyline
-123
50%
50%
Spread
New York Mets -1.5
Miami Marlins +1.5
Moneyline
New York Mets +102
Miami Marlins -123
Total
Over 8.5 (-113)
Under 8.5 (-107)
Professional Picks
7 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Money pick
Kit Wilson
Money pick
Kit Wilson
Spread pick
Blake Mitchum
Money pick
Blake Mitchum
Total pick
Joe Napoli
Money pick
Jonah Black
Total pick
Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Junk’s ERA Gives Miami a Tentative Edge
Analysis updated September 9, 2026 at 5:09 AM CDT
The scheduled pitching matchup favors Miami on ERA, but that comparison alone doesn’t justify a moneyline wager.
Pitching matchup and price
Janson Junk’s listed 4.00 ERA gives Miami a tentative edge over the Mets and scheduled starter Robert Stock, whose ERA is 5.81. SportsNet New York, the New York sports network, lists the two right-handers for Wednesday’s 6:40 p.m. ET finale in Miami. SPF prices the Marlins at -123 and New York at +102.
SportsNet New York also reports that the Mets won 7-5 on Tuesday and have taken the first two games of this three-game series. Those results don’t establish that New York is worth backing with a different starter scheduled for the finale.
Betting decision
Miami is the low-confidence winner pick. At -123, the Marlins need to win about 55.2% of the time to break even, and ERA alone doesn’t establish that probability. With the starters still listed rather than confirmed and no confirmed lineups or bullpen availability, the moneyline is a pass.
Pass on SPF’s 8.5 total as well. Tuesday’s 12 runs don’t tell us enough about scoring against Wednesday’s scheduled pitchers to support the over at -113 or under at -107.
Pick
Miami Marlins
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass