Cleveland State Vikings vs Missouri Tigers Predictions

Carey's absence matters against a large spread

Missouri will open the season without forward Jaylen Carey, a projected starter who averaged 7.4 points and 6.0 rebounds at Tennessee last season. FOX Sports / Associated Press reports that Carey is suspended for a violation of team rules. Transfer guard CJ Gunn is also unavailable after the SEC ruled him ineligible for the season.

Missouri is still the likely winner at home, as its -10000 moneyline indicates. Covering -26.5 requires a win by at least 27 points, however, and Carey's absence removes a projected starter from the rotation.

The available evidence doesn't support a spread bet

SPF lists Cleveland State at +26.5 and +3000, with the total at 160.5. There are no verified starters, recent results or team statistics available for Cleveland State, so its large underdog price alone isn't a reason to take the points or predict an upset.

Wise Guy Team reports that 80% of moneyline tickets are on Missouri and 20% are on Cleveland State. That low-quality public split doesn't show whether either side of the spread is mispriced, and no verified line movement provides another signal.

Prediction

Missouri is the straight-up pick, but the moneyline offers little return and the evidence doesn't justify laying 26.5 points. Pass.