Kansas City
Chiefs
5-1
Spread
-1.5
NFL Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Predictions
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 4:25pm EST at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
@
Denver
Broncos
5-2
Spread
+1.5
50%
50%
Spread
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Denver Broncos +1.5
Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs -115
Denver Broncos -105
Total
Over 41.5 (-102)
Under 41.5 (-118)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
7 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Garrett Perry
Total pick
Charles Avery
Spread pick
Primetime Ryan Johnson
Spread pick
Franny DiStefano
Spread pick
Brooke Smolka
Spread pick
Jason Manning
Total pick
Casper Kohke
Spread pick
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Denver’s Defense Makes a Pass the Best Bet
Analysis updated November 1, 2026 at 7:27 AM CST
Kansas City dominated the first meeting, while Denver’s pass rush and 3-0 home record point to a closer rematch.
Denver’s defense can keep the rematch close
Kansas City held Denver to 176 yards and two third-down conversions in a 31-10 Week 1 win. The Chiefs are only -115 on the SPF moneyline and -1.5 against the spread for the rematch, which shows how much tighter this game is expected to be.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ official preview reports that Denver has allowed 18.3 points per game since Week 2, fourth in the NFL during that six-game span. The Broncos also entered Week 8 with a league-high 21 sacks, giving them a clear way to disrupt a Kansas City offense that scored three points and never reached the red zone in its Week 7 loss at Seattle.
Home field offsets Denver’s offensive limits
The Denver Broncos’ official preview notes that the team is 3-0 at home this season and has won 16 of its past 17 regular-season home games. Denver has also held Kansas City to one touchdown in seven red-zone trips across the Chiefs’ previous two visits.
Denver’s offense makes the home underdog difficult to back. The Broncos entered the game ranked 30th with 270.0 yards per game, and their 31% third-down conversion rate was the NFL’s second-lowest. Those numbers favor Kansas City to win, but they don’t justify laying a short road price against Denver’s defense.
Injuries add uncertainty to a narrow market
Kansas City ruled out cornerback Mansoor Delane and defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott, while cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was placed on injured reserve. Denver ruled out running back RJ Harvey and safety Talanoa Hufanga, and listed tackle Garett Bolles, defensive tackle Zach Allen, safety Brandon Jones and receiver Jaylen Waddle as questionable.
Those unresolved Denver statuses could change the matchup on both sides of the ball. Kansas City is the likelier winner, but the available evidence doesn’t make Chiefs -115 or either side of a 1.5-point spread a worthwhile bet.
Pick
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score
Chiefs 20, Broncos 19
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass