NHL Predictions

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 7:30pm EST at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

New York

Islanders

Moneyline +105
@
Toronto

Maple Leafs

0-1-0
Moneyline -125
38% 62%
Spread New York Islanders +1.5 Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
Moneyline New York Islanders +105 Toronto Maple Leafs -125
Total Over 5.5 (-135) Under 5.5 (+114)
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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Toronto Favored, but Pass at -120

Analysis updated September 30, 2026 at 7:06 AM CDT

Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for New York, while conflicting reports on Mathew Barzal's status add uncertainty to Toronto's -120 price.

Toronto's price leaves little room for uncertainty

Toronto returns home after a 3-2 loss to Montreal in its season opener. SportsLine / RotoWire reported that William Nylander scored both Maple Leafs goals. New York will be playing its first regular-season game.

SportsPicksForum makes Toronto a -120 moneyline favorite, with New York at +100. The Maple Leafs are -1.5 on the puck line, and the total is 5.5. Toronto is the likelier winner at home, but the available evidence doesn't justify paying -120.

Sorokin starts, but Barzal's status is unclear

SportsLine / RotoWire reported that Ilya Sorokin would start for the Islanders. A confirmed goalie gives New York some stability, but Toronto's starter has not been confirmed in the available reporting.

Fubo News lists Mathew Barzal out with a knee injury, while the SportsLine / RotoWire injury section lists no injuries for either team. That conflict makes New York's lineup difficult to project and rules out a confident wager on either side.

Prediction

Toronto is the low-confidence pick to win, but the betting lean is Pass. There isn't enough reliable lineup or recent-form information to support the moneyline, puck line or total at the SportsPicksForum prices.

Pick Toronto Maple Leafs
Confidence low
Betting lean Pass
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