Houston
Astros
74-72
Moneyline
+144
MLB Predictions
Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions
Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 1:05pm EST at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
@
Philadelphia
Phillies
82-64
Moneyline
-175
0%
100%
Spread
Houston Astros +1.5
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Moneyline
Houston Astros +144
Philadelphia Phillies -175
Total
Over 8.5 (-112)
Under 8.5 (-108)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
7 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Total pick
Wes Salvato
Spread pick
Blake Mitchum
Spread pick
Jonah Black
Total pick
Carlos Nunez
Spread pick
Abe Howland
Total pick
Allen Barclay
Money pick
Astros vs. Phillies Prediction: Wheeler Gives Philadelphia the Edge
Analysis updated September 10, 2026 at 5:02 AM CDT
Philadelphia is the likely winner if the projected starters hold, but the pitching edge alone doesn't establish value at -175.
Projected starters favor Philadelphia
Zack Wheeler's projected start gives Philadelphia the clearest edge against Houston. The Action Network, a sports betting publication, lists Wheeler at 12-5 with a 3.24 ERA and projected Astros starter Cristian Javier at 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA. That gap favors the Phillies, whom SPF prices at -175 against Houston's +144.
At -175, Philadelphia needs to win about 63.6% of the time to break even. The ERA difference supports picking the Phillies to win, but it doesn't establish that they clear that threshold. With neither starter confirmed, the moneyline recommendation is Pass.
Relief availability limits the total case
The Action Network lists Phillies reliever Max Lazar out with an oblique injury and Andrew Painter questionable, with relief work possible. Those listings leave Philadelphia's pitching options after Wheeler unsettled.
Houston won 6-5 on September 8 before Philadelphia won 11-7 on September 9, according to the same report. Both games exceeded SPF's current total of 8.5, priced at -112 over and -108 under. Two high-scoring results aren't enough to recommend the over with Wheeler projected to pitch; pass on the total.
Pick
Philadelphia Phillies
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass